Published: Tue, June 20, 2017
Research | By Chelsea Rogers

80% chance of tropical activity in the Gulf


Areas of interest include Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

The disturbance is expected to continue to develop as it moves northwest across the Yucatan Peninsula.

It was already producing winds up to gale force (32-38 mph) several hundred miles to the east and northeast of its center.

In addition, large easterly swells of at least 5 to 6 metres (16 to 20 feet) are also forecasted to accompany the system.

Over the weekend, the warm seas and swirling winds have combined to toss a disorganized system of showers and thunderstorms at parts of the Caribbean. The storm, which is less than 400 miles east-southeast of Trinidad, is expected to pour up to 4 inches of rain on the islands through Tuesday. A tropical depression or storm could form in the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days.

"It's very rare to see a named tropical system in this area of the Atlantic Ocean", Sovine said.

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On Monday or Tuesday, a tropical or subtropical storm is likely to form.

Early projections show the storm's track taking it west toward Louisiana and Texas, but a majority of the rain associated with the storm will be on its eastern side. All of those areas have been placed under a tropical storm warning. We are going to leave rain chances in the forecast for these days and the greatest coverage of rain and storms will come during the afternoon and evening hours. Meanwhile, if the storm can track farther west, the end result could dry Central Florida out.

The agency is also monitoring another disturbance that is now being labeled as Potential Tropical Cyclone Three.

It is expected to dissipate in about 72 hours.

There is a 90 percent chance that the system near the Caribbean develops later today or tomorrow, and an 80 percent chance for the system in the Gulf of Mexico.

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